Probability Strategy

Definition

A probability strategy treats each candidate as having a likelihood and each guess as a bet, selecting moves that maximise expected information or expected solve chance given the odds.

Why it matters

Replacing hunches with probabilistic reasoning is the core shift that lowers a player's average solve count.

Examples

• Preferring a probe that splits candidates evenly.
• Switching to the likeliest answer when guesses run low.

Best practices

• Estimate candidate likelihoods, not certainties.
• Choose for best expected outcome.

Frequently asked