Probability

Decision Tree

Definition

A decision tree represents a sequence of guesses as branches, each splitting by the colour pattern returned. Optimal solvers effectively search a decision tree to minimise expected guesses.

Why it matters

Thinking a move ahead — anticipating how each result would shape your next guess — is what two-move lookahead and expert planning rely on.

Examples

  • Planning 'if green-yellow, then X; if grey, then Y'.
  • Solver software exhaustively evaluating trees.

Best practices

  • Plan your follow-up for each likely result.
  • Prefer guesses whose branches all lead to small groups.

Frequently asked

Can I build a decision tree in my head?

A shallow one — anticipate one move ahead for the main results.

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