Optimal Guess

Definition

An optimal guess maximises expected information while accounting for the guesses you have left and the chance of an immediate solve. It is not always the most likely answer — sometimes it is a high-information probe.

Why it matters

Pursuing optimal guesses, rather than the first plausible answer, is what produces consistently low solve counts.

Examples

• Choosing a probe word that splits candidates evenly over guessing one of them.
• Switching to the likely answer when guesses run short.

Best practices

• Balance information against guesses remaining.
• Re-evaluate optimality after every result.

Frequently asked