Probability

Guess Budget

Definition

The guess budget is the count of remaining guesses, which determines how much you can afford to spend on information versus chasing the answer. A large budget favours probing; a small one favours solving.

Why it matters

Every optimisation decision depends on the budget; ignoring it leads to over-probing late or under-probing early.

Examples

  • With four guesses left, a probe is affordable.
  • With one guess left, you must take your best answer.

Best practices

  • Gamble for information early.
  • Shift to safe answers as the budget shrinks.

Frequently asked

How does the budget change strategy?

More guesses favour information; fewer favour solving safely.

Related concepts