Probability Model

Definition

A probability model assigns likelihoods to outcomes so they can be compared and reasoned about. In Wordle, the implicit model is the distribution over remaining candidate answers; a good guess is evaluated by how its results reshape that distribution.

Why it matters

Thinking in probabilities replaces binary 'is this the answer?' reasoning with graded judgment, which is the foundation of optimal play and of sound decision-making generally.

Examples

• Treating remaining candidates as a distribution rather than a list.
• Weighting common words higher than rare ones in the endgame.

Best practices

• Reason about likelihoods, not certainties.
• Update your model as each clue arrives.

Frequently asked