Probability and Decision Making
The math that separates guessing from solving.
Every guess is a bet. This hub makes the underlying probability explicit — expected information, candidate counting, and how to choose between a safe play and a high-value gamble.
What you will learn
- Count remaining candidates accurately
- Compare expected information across guesses
- Decide when a riskier guess is worth it
Articles in this hub
The Science of Information Gain: From Theory to the Grid
A rigorous but accessible tour of information theory applied to Wordle — expected entropy, bits, and how to reason about them without a calculator.
Advanced · 14 min readProblem Solving Under Uncertainty
A transferable framework for making good choices with incomplete information, illustrated through Wordle.
Intermediate · 11 min readWordle Decision Trees: Planning a Whole Game in Advance
Top solvers do not improvise guess by guess — they follow a branching plan. Learn how to build and read a decision tree for repeatable, low-variance play.
Advanced · 15 min read